Predict the weather yourself

Two articles, I found that could help weatherphobic people in deciding their plans earlier, first with clouds and then general observations.

Predicting the Weather with Clouds

Being able to predict the weather by observing cloud formations is a skill that is somewhat lost on us modern humans. Most of us can easily look at a cloud and see the unicorn or ice cream cones, but very few of us can look at clouds and see the approaching cold front.
Fortunately, being able to predict the weather is easier than one may think. Follows is some helpful information to get you started. It will no doubt wow, impress and keep you dry on your next family outting into the great outdoors.

step 1Categorization

Clouds can easily be broken into four categories. These categories are high clouds, middle clouds, low clouds and clouds with vertical growth.
Clouds are also identified by shape. Cumulus refers to a "heap" of clouds. Stratus refers to clouds that are long and streaky. And nimbus refers to the shape of "rain" because we all know what rain looks like.

step 2High Clouds

High clouds form at 16,00 - 43,000 feet. Basically, these are the clouds that you only encounter on the top of really high mountains or at the cruising altitude of a jet airplane. Due to the extreme conditions at which they form, they tend to be comprised primarily of ice crystals.
High clouds do not block sunlight.
High clouds include:
Cirrus
Cirrostratus
Cirrocumulus

step 3Cirrus

Cirrus clouds are white wispy clouds that stretch across the sky. By all accounts, cirrus clouds indicate fair weather in the immediate future. However, they can also be an indication of a change in weather patterns within the next 24 hours (most likely a change of pressure fronts).
By watching their movement and the direction in which the streaks are pointed, you can get a sense of which direction the weather front is moving.

step 4Cirrostratus

Cirrostratus tend to be sheet-like and cover the whole sky. You can usually tend to see the sun or moon through them. Their pressence usually indicates moist weather within the next 12 - 24 hours.

step 5Cirrocumulus

Cirrocumulus clouds tend to be large groupings of white streaks that are sometimes seemingly neatly aligned. In most climates these mean fair weather for the near future.
However, in the tropics, these clouds may indicate an approaching tropical storm or hurricane (depending on the season).

step 6Middle Clouds

Middle clouds form at 6,500 to 23,000 feet. They are comprised of water, and, if cold enough, ice.
Middle clouds often block sunlight, but not always.
Middle clouds consist of:
Altostratus
Altocumulus

step 7Altostratus

Altostratus are grey and/or blue clouds that cover the whole sky. They tend to indicate a storm some time in the very near future since they usually precede inclimate weather.

step 8Altocumulus

Altocumulus are grayish-white clouds blanketing the entire sky. The tend to look like large fluffy sheets in which there is a lot of contrast between light and dark. Sun does not pass through them. If you see them in the morning, prepare for a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

step 9Low clouds

Low clouds form below 6,500 feet. These clouds are the ones that like to hang-around just above tall buildings. These clouds tend to contain water, but can also be comprised of snow if the weather gets cold enough.
Low clouds block sunlight and can bring precipitation and wind.
Low clouds include:
Stratus
Stratocumulus
Nimbostratus

step 10Stratus

Stratus are low-lying solid clouds that are often formed when fog lifts off the ground. They obviously look like an elevated fog. Often they bring drizzle or light snow.

step 11Stratocumulus

Stratocumulus are low-lying bumpy and grey clouds. They do not bring precipitation. They also do not cover the entire sky and tend to come in rows and patches.

step 12Nimbostratus

Nimbostratus is your standard rain cloud. It is a large flat sheet of grey cloud with a little bit of differentiation. If you see these, chances are it's raining outside.

step 13Clouds with vertical mobility

And last, but not least, are clouds with vertical growth which tend to have a base that hangs really low (5,000 feet) and a top that climbs really high (over 50,000 feet).
Clouds in this category include:
Cumulus
Cumulonimbus

step 14Cumulus

Cumulus clouds are your stereotypical white "cottonball" clouds. So long as the clouds remain low clumps floating across the sky, there will be fair weather. However, you need to keep an eye on these clouds because any vertical growth can indicate the start of a large storm.

step 15Cumulonimbus

Cumulonimbus are cumulus clowds that have grown vertically into an anvil-like shape. The anvil tends to point in the direction the storm is moving. These clouds bring most dangerous weather such as rain, lightning, hail and tornadoes.

step 16That's a lot of information. Now what?

Alright, now that we know what the basic types of clouds are, we need to look up at the sky. Go outside and look at the sky. If there are no clouds in the the sky, then the weather is fine. Assuming there are clouds in the sky, we now need to identify them.

First, determine if you can see the sun or moon through them. If you can, then you are looking at high altitude clouds. If the clouds are thick, then there is a chance of poor weather a day or two in the future. To determine when the storm will arrive, observe whether or not the clouds appear to be moving. If they appear stationary, it is a slow moving front and probably won't arrive for over a day. If they appear to be moving, then the change in weather will be there faster. You can tell which way the storm is traveling by the direction the clouds are pointing.

If you can not see through the clouds, chances are that you are looking at middle or low altitude clouds. First, determine which of the two you are dealing with by observing shape, color and other more obvious give-aways. Are they covering the entire sky? Then they may be middle altitude clouds. Do they appear to be grey with a blue tint or fluffy white/grey clouds with a lot of contrast between light and dark? If yes, then these are middle altitude clouds and you should prepare for rain within half a day.

If you answered no to any of those questions, then check for low-altitude clouds. These tend to appear low and often engulf mountains and buildings. If it looks like an elevated fog, expect drizzle (if it isn't already). If it is rows of low, dark, lumpy clouds, then the weather is otherwise okay, but watch for further developments. If there is a low, dark, grey sheet, then it's probably raining. If it's not, quickly go get your umbrella.
If your clouds are low, fluffy, and white like cottonballs in the sky, then the weather is okay. However, keep an eye on these for any vertical growth of the cloud upwards into the sky (turning into anvil shapes). These clouds can unexpectedly change from fair weather indicators into violent thunderstorms.

How to Predict the Weather Without a Forecast

Long before technology was developed to predict the weather, people had to rely on observation, patterns and folklore to avoid being caught off guard by the elements. If your plans, livelihood or even your survivaldepend on the weather, it certainly wouldn't hurt to become familiar with some of these methods, especially since you never know when you might be out of touch with the local weather report. These methods aren't foolproof, but they have their usefulness, and if you don't have a forecast on hand, what do you have to lose by trying them?

1. Check the grass for dew at sunrise. If the grass is dry, this indicates clouds or strong breezes, which can mean rain. If there's dew, it probably won't rain that day. However, if it rained during the night, this method will not be reliable.

2. Remember the rhyme: "Red sky at night, sailor's delight; Red sky at morning, sailors take warning." Look for any sign of red in the sky (not a red sun); it will not be a bold orange or red the majority of the time, but that depends a little on where you live.

   • Sailor's delight

     If you see a red sky during sunset (when you're looking to the west), there is a high pressure system with dry air that is stirring dust particles in the air, causing the sky to look red. Since prevailing front movements and jet streams weather usually move from west to east (see Tips), the dry air is heading towards you.

   • A red sky in the morning (in the East, where the sun rises) means that the dry air has already moved past you, and what follows behind it (on its way towards you) is a low pressure system that carries moisture.
3. Look for a rainbow in the west. This is the result of the rising sun's morning rays from the east striking moisture in the west. Most major storm fronts travel west to east, and a rainbow in the west means moisture, which can mean rain is on its way. On the other hand, a rainbow in the east around sunset means that the rain is on its way out and you can look forward to sunny days. Remember: Rainbow in the morning, need for a warning.
4. Detect which direction the wind is blowing. If unable to immediately detect the wind's direction, throw a small piece of grass in to the air and watch its descent. Easterly winds can indicate an approaching storm front, westerly winds the opposite. Strong winds indicate high pressure differences, which can be a sign of advancing storm fronts. Deciduous trees show the undersides of their leaves during unusual winds, supposedly because they grow in a way that keeps them right-side up during typical prevalent winds.
5. Take a deep breath. Close your eyes and smell the air.
   • Plants release their waste in a low pressure atmosphere, generating a smell like compost and indicating an upcoming rain.
   • Swamps will release methane just before a storm because of the lower pressure, which leads to unpleasant smells.
   • A proverb says "Flowers smell best just before a rain." Scents are stronger in moist air, associated with rainy weather.
6. Check for humidity. Many people can feel humidity, especially in their hair (it curls up and gets frizzy). You can also look at the leaves of oak or maple trees. These leaves tend to curl in high humidity, which tends to precede a heavy rain. Pine cone scales remain closed if the humidity is high, but open in dry air. Under humid conditions, wood swells (look out for those sticky doors) and salt clumps (is that shaker working well?).
7. Watch the clouds.
   • Clouds going in different directions (e.g. one layer going west, another layer going north) - bad weather coming, probably hail

   • Cumulonimbus clouds early in the day and developing throughout the day - greater chances of severe weather

   • Mammatus cloud (formed by sinking air) - thunderstorm is dissipating (not forming)

     

     Mammatus cloud formations

   • 

     Cirrus fibratus, aka "mare's tail"

     Cirrus clouds high in the sky like long streamers - bad weather within the next 36 hours

   • 

     Altocumulus mackerel sky

     Altocumulus clouds like mackerel scales - bad weather within the next 36 hours. The old sailor's saying for these types of clouds is "Mares tails and mackerel scales, tall ships carry short sails." Another is "Mackerel skies and mare's tails, sailors furl their sails." Mackerel skies and mares tails formations sometimes appear in the same sky. When that happens, rain is sure to follow the next day.

   • Cloud cover on a winter night - expect warmer weather because clouds prevent heat radiation that would lower the temperature on a clear night.

   • 

     Cumulus towers (cumulus castellanus) - possibility of showers later in the day

8. Observe animals. They are more likely to react to changes in air pressure than we are.
   • If birds are flying high in the sky, there will probably be fair weather. (Falling air pressure caused by an imminent storm causes discomfort in birds' ears, so they fly low to alleviate it. Large numbers of birds roosting on power lines indicates swiftly falling air pressure.)
   • Seagulls tend to stop flying and take refuge at the coast if a storm is coming.
   • Animals, especially birds, get quiet immediately before it rains.
   • Cows will typically lie down before a thunderstorm. They also tend to stay close together if bad weather's on the way.
   • Ants build their hills with very steep sides just before a rain.
   • Cats tend to clean behind their ears before a rain.
   • Turtles often search for higher ground when a large amount of rain is expected. You will often see them in the road during this period (1 to 2 days before the rain).
   • A very old wives tale says if birds feed in a storm it will rain for a long time, if they don't it will clear soon.
9. Make a campfire. The smoke should rise steadily. Smoke that swirls and descends is caused by low pressure (i.e. rain on the way).

10. 

    Ring around the moon

    Look at the moon during the night. If it is reddish or pale, dust is in the air. But if the moon is bright and sharply focused, it's probably because low pressure has cleared out the dust, and low pressure means rain. Also, a ring around the moon (caused by light shining through cirrostratus clouds associated with warm fronts and moisture) can indicate that rain will probably fall within the next three days. Remember: Circle around the moon, rain or snow soon.

11. Create your own prediction methods. The methods provided thus far are based around a few key (but very general) principles: Low pressure brings rain, and major weather systems move from west to east. Predicting the weather is all about recognizing the signs of pressure change in your area. While prevailing systems may move from west to east, for example, individual storms in a particular region may not, due to local weather phenomena. Long term residents who spend a great deal of their time outdoors, particularly farmers, commercial fishermen and the like, learn to observe trends that give them clues to long term weather patterns and seasonal changes in their specific geographical location. In the southern United States, for instance, dogwoods are seldom caught off guard by late spring frosts, so when they bloom, you have likely seen the last frost of the season. By being observant, forming hypotheses, and testing your predictions, you can fine-tune your weather predicting abilities beyond what any article could ever instruct.
12. Look for pine cones Pine trees are an excellent indicator of the overall harshness of the coming winter. In fall, look to the pine trees in your area and note if the cones are high on the tree or low. Low hanging cones indicate a mild winter.

Tips

• If you have the inclination, you can use a barometer (or make your own) to measure changes in pressure. Keep a notebook and observe what else happens when the pressure changes. Be attentive and you might come up with your own weather-prediction method that's localized to your area.

Warnings

• Don't risk your life or well-being based on these indicators and proverbs. They are correlational only. Predicting the weather in this manner is not an exact science.