The - Eltville Model - of future management

[The "Eltville Model" of future management via Future management group]

FutureManagementGroup AG works with a methodical system which has been developed in more than twelve years of research: The "Eltville Model" of future management. The methodology has been developed through scientific research and primarily through the experience of hundreds of projects in large and medium-sized enterprises, non-profit organizations and administrations. The method combines the demands of scientific future management with the necessities of entrepreneurial practice.

The Eltviller model comprises the five possible perspectives on the future. The future can be looked at in the entrepreneurial context with five "glasses":

1. "Blue view ": The probable future (assumptions)
2. "Green view ": The possible future (opportunities)
3. "Yellow view": The desired future (vision)
4. "Red view ": The unexpected future (surprises)
5. "Violet view ": The planned and created future (strategies)

The method of the "Eltville Model"

The "Eltville Model" contains selected fundamental methods of future research, such as delphi, scenario methods, weak signals, issue analysis, precursors, analytical and holistic decision-making procedures, a series of uni- and multivariant forecasting techniques as well as a broad range of creativity methods. The methodical system is supported by the software "FutureManager", developed by the FutureMangementGroup AG.

The Eltville Model and the results of future management

Future projects in companies, non-profit organizations and administrations conducted by FutureManagementGroup AG are based on a quality-approved phase model:

1. Basics: In a practical future project the first step consists in acquiring the basic knowledge of future management and to make this competence available to a team of internal future managers.

2. FutureRadar: On the basis of a thorough system analysis essential future factors (trends, technologies) are determined. This is accomplished through a future scan (expert surveys and research). Each member of the future teams gets the function of a sensor and thus is requested to gather information on a particular area related to the market, to structure this information and to share it with the future team.

3. AssumptionAnalysis: Future projections which have been established by the FutureRadar are now processed and jugded by the future team and external experts according to criteria such as probability, importance and time horizon. The results are integrated into one FuturePanorama and statistically edited. Distinctions are made between FutureAssumptions as expected developments, FutureEventualities as relatively probable developments and FutureDiscontinuities as improbable developments.

4. OpportunityAnalysis: The OpportunityAnalysis is the core phase of the process. Its function is to expand the future related horizon of the decision-makers and to derive opportunities for new markets, products, strategies, structures, etc., from the FuturePanorama. A broad range of creative methods are applied so that eventually an OpportunityPanorama is established.

5. StrategyDevelopment: The FuturePanorama and the OpportunityPanorama are used as the basis of a draft FutureStrategy, understood as strategic future vision and strategic guidelines. This could possibly result in a modification of the company's vision.

6. SurpriseAnalysis: Through an iterative procedure the soundness and plausibility of the FutureStrategy is ensured by confronting it with major sudden and/or unexpected occurrences and developments.

7. Realization planning: The FutureStrategy leads into a system of concrete projects and actions.

8. FutureManagement-System: In order to ensure continuity of the future related work a comprehensive and individual FutureManagement-System is eventually developed and implemented.

9. Realization coaching: In order to keep the future knowledge up to date and to support the realization of the approved actions, radar workshops are carried out on a regular basis.

By going through these methodical phases the essential elements of a FutureManagement-System are practically developed and already implemented. Eventually the future radar is completed by a future database.

With regard to content FutureManagementGroup AG maintains a comprehensive future database which contains about 100 so-called future factors. The database is being feeded from the most important future-related intelligence sources, own researches, expert questionings and worldwide contacts to futurologists

Five views of the future

The Eltviller model realizes the five possible perspectives on the future. The future can be looked at in the entrepreneurial context with five "glasses":

1. "Blue view ": The probable future (assumptions)
2. "Green view ": The possible future (opportunities)
3. "Yellow viewn": The desired future (vision)
4. "Red view ": The unexpected future (discontinuities)
5. "Violet view ": The created future (strategies)

The wish to imagine things creatively and to remain practical at the same time is not feasible. It’s a dilemma: We can not think highly creatively and analytically or highly critically and visionary simultaneously. We can only do so one after the other. Therefore the five viewpoints have to be applied in the right order. This results in a sequence of perspectives and a process, which has proved successful in hundreds of projects in companies and organizations of various kinds. This process is complemented by an opening phase called "FutureRadar" in which relevant future information is being gathered and eventually by the implementation of a FutureManagement-System through which the process is institutionalized.

The viewpoints of the future in the Eltville Model of future management

1. The blue glasses: What is the probable future?

With experience and logical reasoning experts can succeed in correctly assessing the probable future of a market over the coming years. People build their life, and companies their existence, upon the foundation of such future assumptions. Someone who invests into a chemical plant often commits himself over a period of a quarter of a century and therefore often makes his economic existence dependent on the correctness of his future assumptions concerning his customer's needs, the market and technology in the future. The development of a new product or the employment of a new worker is also predicated on our future assumptions. It is astonishing, however, that only a few companies have explicitly formulated their future assumptions as the foundation of their decisions. Methodically, the blue perspective is applied in the step of "AssumptionAnalysis".

2. The green glasses: What is the possible and creatable future?

The green perspective focuses on the possibilities we have for shaping the future. Which hand do we hold for the game of the future? Which cards can we get hold of? What can we shape? What is feasible? The green glasses are creative, investigative and borderless. They are very different from the analytical, logical view related to the blue glasses. The green view does not know any limits of thought. While experience was crucial for successfully applying the blue perspective it is hampering success of the green view: The more experience the worse the results. Methodically, the green perspective is applied in the step of "OpportunityAnalysis".

3. The yellow glasses: How do we want our future to look like?

Through the yellow glasses we see the chances and opportunities critically and visionary at the same time. The task is to determine those future opportunities which are best suited for you, for your company, your potentials, abilities, resources, finances and culture. The best opportunities become an integral part of a strategic vision as a concrete image of a fascinating, commonly strived and practicable future. Methodically, the yellow perspective is applied in the step of "VisionDevelopment".

4. The red glasses: How could the future surprise us?

11 September 2001, 9 November 1989 (fall of the Berlin wall) and 26 April 1986 (Tschernobyl) have been surprising events. The flop of the "new economy" for the time being, the persistent non-occurrence of the video-tv boom and the rapid dissemination of the internet in the mid-nineties were surprising, but gradual, developments. Through the red glasses we are searching for such discontinuities and try to improve our future strategy through prevention, insurance and provision. The red perspective is applied in the step of "DiscontinuityAnalysis".

5. The violet glasses: How do we create our future?

Most entrepreneurs and businessmen are very familiar with the violet glasses. Concrete action for the future is defined here. This perspective causes the least problems of understanding and implementation, because it is deeply rooted in daily thinking and acting. But the violet glasses have to be the last step, the other four glasses need to be applied first. The violet perspective is applied in "StrategyDevelopment".

Benefit of future management

A professional and systematical conduction of future management leads to various benefits for businesses and organizations:

Future management improves your competitive position because it is deeper and broader than normal strategic management and thus leads to more innovation and vision.

Future management increases the revenues because it increases the number and quality of threats and opportunities which are recognized before the competitors.

Future management ensures the existence of your enterprise because it reminds it of the uncertainties and threats of the future and prepares your enterprise for them.

Future management lowers the costs by the higher efficiency and effectiveness which result from a clear strategic vision.

Future management improves the strategy because it offers clear orientation bases by solid future analyses.

Future management improves motivation and confidence of management and employees because there is the good feeling to have examined and answered the most important questions of the future systematically and comprehensively.